Good afternoon, everybody. It is January 2nd, 2024. This is our new year. This is Jeff with Chain Reaction. Thanks for tuning in. I wanted to kind of go over some highlights here. What is going on in the world today? And I can just get my screen to participate, kind of go over some news. What is the fun? One of the major things that's happening Suez canal, right? So I am a big proponent. My thesis is. The supply chain logistics, we are kind of the bellwether to global economy, really the U. S. marketplace. And when everything is going well in logistics, things will be normal for the U. S. consumer. And so as pricing has dramatically decreased and transit times have normalized in logistics, we're looking at a 9 to 18 month forecast to normalization for the U. S. Economy. aNd with exception to Any black swan moments, which here we are with this war and vessels getting attacked now as well as the Panama canal. So here's a, here's a company update that we're giving our customers. Of course, if you know me, you know where I work, but that is private information. Otherwise 25 vessels have been rerouted to the Cape of good hope from the Suez canal. That number will grow. Due to ongoing war risks in the Red Sea, as well as the drought in the Panama Canal. 30 percent of global traffic is in the Suez Canal, folks. So, just this, this will affect pricing. I saw a note last week. that it is affecting already the TPEB market with rates skyrocketing to 10, 000. I cannot verify that just yet. I look forward to verifying that, but I am going to I wouldn't be surprised, but I'd be surprised. Let's be honest. I mean, a huge, huge increase. That's a, that's a three X increase. in about two weeks. So to be getting into those covid level rates for a trade lane that is not even affected directly is a little bit shocking. However, these ocean carriers, they want it. They want that That type of freight. And then the Panama Canal thing. I know when I'm communicating with with customers that are that are moving that cargo through Panama Canal, they're they're sincerely concerned. What is the impact? We see the drought updates. We see this news about the drought. In reality, I'm not seeing this effect on shipments. except for maybe one or two actual live shipments. That's not to say it's not affecting it. However, it's just the facts for my specific book. The carriers want higher rates. It's their business. The more revenue they can get, the more it offsets costs. And, you know, they answer to shareholders as well. So what are we looking at as well? Middle East is going to get affected. Transit times will increase. aiR freights already affected. There was some shortened there was an effect in Anchorage that had to do with the fuel refueling area. And we saw air freight spike two X out of China into the U. S. Let's just and that is post Christmas time. So now we have this fact this situation. So that's also going to impact shippers who need to be considering a contingency plan. Let's look at what else. Now, when I'm having this conversation with customers, supply chain people, what is the real effect? The real effect is, I don't know, U. S. demand is still low. We're not the difference between right now and COVID is everybody was at home during COVID and everybody had nothing else to do except work in their gardens, get a new pet and buy a bunch of crap from overseas. Demand is very low. Inventories are still high. I think we had not a great holiday. season Black Friday. We're pending some, some results from that. So that'll be upcoming. That'll be forthcoming, but they can put those prices up, but we look forward to seeing what that effect will be. aNd that's going to be one of the articles that I look at right now, right? Transportation capacity up again in December prices fall faster. That's just, that's the major shift for this year. We still have, and this is domestic, but it translates directly on the international side as well. There is a significant amount of capacity because of the lack of demand. There's just not any demand for. cargo movements West Coast, East Coast or Gulf Coast. So I am very curious how this price increase is going to affect further movement. tAlking about, you know, this, this is good little spot here because I was just talking about inventories being. being high. That's my personal insights. But here warehouse space is tight for retailers or downstream customer yet. Inventory levels are high, so we they're not needing more inventory to come from overseas. Inventory levels declined at the same pace it did. iNteresting to see if changes in the new year Or if this is the low point, manufacturers and wholesalers will begin building inventories up again. Yeah, we'll see. This will be an interesting. Inventories have been leaned, so maybe I'm wrong on that. Again, once we see the information that comes out of the Black Friday stuff, retail, how they did. Then we can probably see what the real effect of what, what companies are going to do with purchasing procurement. sO state of freight, we'll go to freight waves and see what they have to say. sTrong volume, they'd say strong volume. That was in the mid December, of course, two weeks later, they said it was light. We're gonna turn it off there. That's I think the Red Sea and and the Suez Canal Panama Canal are all going to be some developing items. We'll have to talk to some procurement people and supply chain folks on what their projects are forecasting. and what is developing on their side of the business and what that's going to lead to for 2024. All indicators are that this is going to be a lean year in the supply chain and procurement industry as well as logistics. Prices will remain flat and we will not have many real spikes with the exception of some black swan events. So looking forward to keeping you guys abreast of that situation and what this all might look like. If you need me You know how to reach out. And if I want to update everybody on ISM 2024, the ISM Expo, that's Institute of Supply Management. We have an expo in Houston, Texas. That's at the city center. We are not only looking for attendees, but for sponsors. Sponsorship is filling up quickly. It's$600 to get a little booth out there. And we have over 200 attendees from some of the top organizations in Texas that is going to be you're gonna have procurement managers supply chain managers, all from within these groups. top companies within the Houston area and the Texas market. Looking around, this is a fantastic opportunity. Your return on investment is essentially immediate for 600, but we also have higher tier sponsorship. So come check it out at the ISM expo. You can, of course, reach out to me at jeff. davis at Bridgestoneinvest. com. Thanks so much.