Chain Reaction: Tales from the Supply Chain Frontline

TPM Update-Will carriers settle?

March 07, 2024 Jeff Davis
TPM Update-Will carriers settle?
Chain Reaction: Tales from the Supply Chain Frontline
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Chain Reaction: Tales from the Supply Chain Frontline
TPM Update-Will carriers settle?
Mar 07, 2024
Jeff Davis

Instagram- @jeffdavis_bridgestone
YouTube- JeffDavis_Bridgestone
Twitter- @bridgestonecap
https://www.youtube.com/@ChainReaction-vh7rm
www.bridgestoneinvest.com

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Instagram- @jeffdavis_bridgestone
YouTube- JeffDavis_Bridgestone
Twitter- @bridgestonecap
https://www.youtube.com/@ChainReaction-vh7rm
www.bridgestoneinvest.com

Jeff:

Hola, welcome to chain reaction. Wanted to get into TPM and some of the Correspondence coming out of there. Share my screen here. I think share so let's get into it because I think yesterday I had mentioned my opinion, which holds very little water, but it's good to get some of the professionals, I mentioned That I want to know what the shippers, what the forwarders, what the carriers are saying. So this article from Mr. Mike Wackett, credit to him, from Lodestar They're at TPM. The timelines are potentially going to be reset right now. Asia to the U S West coast is at 170 percent peak just from December. Very reminiscent of COVID US East coasts are at 5, 840, 130 percent peak from December, all attributed to Red Sea disruption spike for the short term rates. Directly and indirectly impacted by vessel diversions around Africa. which is helping carriers elevate pitch levels. So most of the BCOs and the freight forwarders that Lodestar is speaking to, they, they're giving the carriers the benefit of the doubt that there's a higher cost in operations. However, opinion From procurement professionals, we went into that procurement from the ISM article yesterday in the PMI index. This is a direct correlation there. This will be interesting. Procurement managers, what they should, what is a reasonable amount and space guarantee? We won't sign for a year if the offer is too high. I've actually been saying this for the past month. I can't see these B. C. O. S. The large B. C. O. S. Signing these contracts. They're just not buying that the cost Is at this level. So here's direct correlation coming out of TPM. We won't sign for a year if the offer is too high and we won't, we don't want to just agree a three month deal because more or less as soon as it commences, we will need to start the tender all over again. Yeah, that's forwarder side. So even the freight forwarders. are buying this. In the case of a high offer, we will look for some sort of compromise, a six month deal with a review after five months. pushing back VCOs more fortunate as the Transpacific buck the tradition of the trade lane and run from January to December. In other words, not peak season, very lucky to be able to tender in December for the year. Oh, I see. I'm sorry. I don't mean it's not peak seasons that she already negotiated those contracts. Panama is still an issue. Rerouting Suez. everybody's concerned. So it seems that we're just not going to be getting these 12 month contracts right now. So very interesting and more to come out of TPM. Good, good information. And I think the outcome of this, what is the premises, right? What is the what is the mood? The mood is. that the, the carriers are not going to get a locked in high rate. They're going to get a three month or a six month. That's, that's what it sounds like. The BCOs and the freight forwarders are not buying these higher costs. It's not reasonable. The, the cost that they're asking for. So good stuff. I will leave it at that. Stay tuned for more sign, like share and subscribe.